Thought American may be embroiled in its own domestic issues and a pandemic, the rest of the world continues to turn, and many other nations face difficult times, tensions. and fighting outside of COVID-19. In recent weeks a conflict has erupted in the already-tense region of Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia, which has continued to escalate since the first shots were fired on September 27th. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan blamed the other for the start of the conflict. A tentative ceasefire brokered in Moscow between the nations was broken on October 10th, and both sides blame the other for that as well. Already many have died and long-range weapons have fired far past their intended targets. Why a conflict here and now? The region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been in dispute for decades. In 1988, it sought independence from Azerbaijan, starting a years-long conflict that claimed tens of thousands of lives. In 2016, there was another, smaller conflict, and again this summer. The whole situation is often referred to as a “frozen” conflict, but it has now thawed again. Though the region may seem small and isolated, it impacts global relations more than you might expect. Between the two nations, situated near the Caspian Sea, they share borders with Turkey, Iran, and Russia. In the past, a coalition made up of Russia, France and America has worked to negotiate an end to the conflicts. But there is now a new variable in the equation: Turkey. Turkey has allied itself deeply with Azerbaijan, whose majority Muslim population is of the same ethnic group as the Turks. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has made it clear that they stand behind Azerbaijan in this conflict; also inflaming tensions is the fact that both Turkey and Azerbaijan deny the Armenian genocide of World War I. Russia, on the other hand, is allied with Armenia, setting the stage for a potential influx of foreign influence in the fighting. Turkey and Russia are already fighting each other in proxy wars in Syria and Libya. In the past, they’ve been willing to work together to put down conflicts, but both Russia and Turkey are getting more aggressive in the Middle East and America is stepping back from the region. This may be the time for Russia and Turkey to show that Western powers are not so relevant in their backyards. The region of Nagorno-Karabakh has no particular significance to the international community by itself, only to its inhabitants. But the regional tensions it affects could inflame many other relationships. In the South Caucasus, where the conflict is occurring, lie important oil and gas lines. Azerbaijan buys arms from Israel. France and the US, among other countries, support Armenia. Iran, on the border to both nations, has ethnic populations from both sides. Armenians in San Francisco, all the way across the world, faced hate crimes at a school and church there. Their freedom of religion, culture, and self-determination could be decided by this war - or it may go back to the same unrestful but at least nonviolent status quo. That’s what many experts hope for, because at least it would avoid a wider war that could draw in Turkey and Russia. It’s possible that the ongoing negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow may succeed, which could improve the situation. Now, let's northwest to Belarus, where ongoing protests have seen further violence used against the opposition to the government and where the president, Alexander Lukashenko, met with his political opponents in jail. Ever since the August 9th “landslide” victory of Lukashenko, which was widely thought to have been rigged, Belarusians have taken to the streets in droves to demand a transfer of power and free and fair elections. On October 10th, the United Kingdom withdrew their ambassador to the country, and on October 11th Romania did the same. The protestors continue to hope that their actions will lead to change, and the government there is also not budging. The largest figure of opposition to Lukashenko, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, announced from exile that if Lukashenko doesn’t step down before October 25th, strikes will immobilize the country. Recently also, Russia announced that Ms. Tikhanovskaya has been put on their wanted list. This further shows that Russia is taking Lukashenko’s side in a country that has for decades stood on a precarious precipice between Russia and the West. Between Belarus and Armenia, it’s clear that Russia is not slacking on its expansion of global power. This summer, Alexei Navalny, the most important opponent of Vladimir Putin in Russian politics, was poisoned with a Soviet-era nerve agent and was taken to Berlin, where he is still recovering. Russia also held a referendum this summer that passed, changing their constitution to allow Putin to serve until 2036. The US State Department has also grown concerned over Russia’s growing influence in Africa. How these stories develop remains to be seen, but we’ll keep you posted. Works Cited "Armenia Azerbaijan: Reports of fresh shelling dent ceasefire hopes." BBC, 11 Oct. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54488386. "Belarus protests: Lukashenko holds meeting with opponents in jail." BBC, 11 Oct. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54496233. "Belarus' authoritarian leader visits his foes in prison." The Independent, 10 Oct. 2020, www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-authoritarian-leader-visits-his-foes-in-prison-alexander-lukashenko-leader-kyiv-prison-president-b939332.html. "Belarus: Russia puts opposition's Tikhanovskaya on wanted list." BBC, 7 Oct. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54456608. Higgins, Andrew. "As Both Sides Dig In, What’s the Endgame for Belarus?" The New York Times, 12 Sept. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/europe/belarus-russia-protests-endgame.html. Higgins, Andrew. "The Theatrical Method in Putin’s Vote Madness." The New York Times, 1 July 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/world/europe/putin-referendum-vote-russia.html. Kotchikian, Asbed. "Nagorno-Karabakh conflict precipitates a new regional order." Al-Jazeera, 8 Oct. 2020, www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/10/8/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-precipitates-a-new-regional-order/. Kozenko, Andrey. "Navalny poisoning: Kremlin critic recalls near-death Novichok torment." BBC, 7 Oct. 2020, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54434082. Kramer, Andrew E. "Why Is Conflict Erupting Again Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?" The New York Times, 10 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/article/armenian-azerbaijan-conflict.html. Makridis, Christos A., and Alex Galitsky. "Azerbaijan's assault against Armenia threatens democracy everywhere." The Hill, 10 Oct. 2020, thehill.com/opinion/international/520437-azerbaijans-assault-against-armenia-threatens-democracy-everywhere. Mishanec, Nora. "3 incidents at S.F. Armenian church, school now considered hate crimes." The San Francisco Chronicle, 23 Sept. 2020, www.sfchronicle.coRm/bayarea/article/3-incidents-at-S-F-Armenian-church-school-now-15591677.php. Neuman, Scott. "Azerbaijan, Armenia Trade Accusations Of Breaking Cease-Fire In Nagorno-Karabakh." NPR, 14 Oct. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/10/14/923674768/azerbaijan-armenia-trade-accusations-of-breaking-cease-fire-in-nagorno-karabakh. "Police in Belarus crack down on protesters, detain dozens." Reuters , 11 Oct. 2020, www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-protests/police-in-belarus-crack-down-on-protesters-detain-dozens-idUSKBN26W0IH. "Romania recalls its ambassador from Belarus." 112 Ukraine, 11 Oct. 2020, 112.international/politics/romania-recalls-its-ambassador-from-belarus-55508.html. Ryan, Missy. "Pentagon calls for new cooperation with Algeria to counteract growing Russian influence in Africa." The Washington Post, 1 Oct. 2020, www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-military-africa-russia/2020/10/01/ac53cf66-0415-11eb-8879-7663b816bfa5_story.html. Strength Through Peace. "Eruption of Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh." Council on Foreign Relations, 28 Sept. 2020, www.cfr.org/blog/eruption-conflict-over-nagorno-karabakh. Sytas, Andrius. "Belarus opposition leader sets October 25 deadline for Lukashenko to quit." Reuters, 13 Oct. 2020, www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-ultimatum-idUSKBN26Y1KP. "The Trouble in the South Caucasus Extends Far Beyond One Small Enclave." The New York Times, 8 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/opinion/armenia-azerbaijan.html. "UK temporarily recalls ambassador to Belarus." The Guardian, 10 Oct. 2020, www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/10/uk-temporarily-recalls-ambassador-to-belarus. - Kate Voltz If you want to write for the Crescent Crier, we would love to see you at one of our virtual meetings, which are every Wednesday at 1:30pm! To come to a meeting, fill out this form: https://forms.gle/TrQ5PqFcDqeE2yiB9, and we’ll send you a link ASAP. If you would like to submit a single article - or anything else like creative writing, an opinion, an art piece, photo or photo series, or something else entirely - then you can do that using this form: https://forms.gle/WAHSoWJuVwK3q5du6. If you want to contact us for any reason, you can email
[email protected]. Thanks for reading!
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |